Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy
Last updated: 2025-04-11
The Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc fallacy (Latin for "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical error where someone assumes that because one event followed another, the first event must have caused the second. This fallacy confuses correlation with causation.
Understanding Post Hoc Reasoning
This fallacy follows the pattern: "A occurred, then B occurred. Therefore, A caused B." While the sequence of events may be accurate, the causal relationship is assumed without sufficient evidence.
Examples in Sales Contexts
Example 1: Revenue Attribution
"We started using your CRM software last quarter, and our revenue increased by 15%. Your software is clearly responsible for our growth."
Why it's fallacious: While the CRM implementation and revenue increase occurred in sequence, many other factors could have contributed to the growth, such as seasonal trends, new marketing campaigns, or economic conditions.
Example 2: Customer Churn
"We changed our pricing structure, and then three major clients canceled their contracts. The price change must have driven them away."
Why it's fallacious: While the timing suggests a connection, the clients may have left for entirely different reasons, such as internal budget cuts, a competitor's offering, or changes in their business needs.
How to Counter This Fallacy
- Look for multiple causes: Recognize that most business outcomes have multiple contributing factors.
- Ask for evidence: Request data that demonstrates a causal relationship, not just a temporal one.
- Consider alternative explanations: Brainstorm other factors that could explain the observed outcome.
- Test the relationship: If possible, use controlled tests to verify causation.
Why Sales Professionals Should Care
Understanding this fallacy is crucial for sales professionals for several reasons:
- Making accurate claims: Avoid making unsubstantiated causal claims about your product's benefits.
- Evaluating sales strategies: Don't assume a new sales tactic is working just because sales increased after implementing it.
- Addressing client concerns: Help clients understand that correlation doesn't imply causation when they make post hoc assumptions.
- Building credibility: Demonstrate analytical rigor by avoiding simplistic causal explanations.
Conclusion
The Post Hoc fallacy can lead to incorrect conclusions about product effectiveness, customer behavior, and sales strategies. By recognizing this fallacy, sales professionals can make more accurate claims, better analyze their results, and build stronger, more logical arguments for their products and services.